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摘要:中国人口统计或许不那么准确,但如果说官方数据高估了9000万人,导致中国已不再是人口第一大国,那么这“发现”实在太夸张了,几乎是不可能的。

 

524日下午,忽然看到FT中文网刊出一篇报道,题为《研究显示中国人口或已被印度超过》,被吓了一跳。点开一看,原来是民间人口研究者易富贤的观点。作为报道中国人口和生育政策多年的记者,对这位易先生还是很熟悉的。但是,看完报道后发现,这不过是个假设性观点,甚至可说是个笑话;千万别当真。

 

24日晚,收到人口学家、加州大学尔湾分校教授王丰老师的微信。他批评了英文《南华早报》关于易富贤观点的报道,并分享了英国《卫报》采访他和印度学者的深度报道。王丰教授对《卫报》说,所谓印度人口超过中国的说法“很草率”。

 

为方便读者阅读,我把上述FT中文网的报道摘要如下;(如有朋友对这篇单一信源、很不高明的报道感兴趣,也可在FT中文网上查阅报道原文。)我想说的是,中国人口统计或许不那么准确,但如果说官方数据高估了9000万人,导致中国已不再是人口第一大国,那么这“发现”实在太夸张了,几乎是不可能的。

 

524日,FT中文网报道称,一位长期批评中国生育政策的旅美华人研究者易富贤称,按他关于中国生育率的估计,目前印度或已超过中国,成为世界人口最多的国家。易富贤现任职于美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校,业余做中国人口研究。

 

易富贤近日在北京表示,中国官员把1990年至2016年间的出生人数高估了近9000万。他把这一误差部分归因于生育率高估。2015年,中国总和生育率被估计为1.6,但易富贤认为实际上可能仅有1.05。如果易的说法是正确的,2016年底中国人口为12.9亿;而中国官方数据为13.8亿,低于印度官方估计的13.3亿。

 

易富贤告诉英国《金融时报》记者:“我还没研究过印度的人口数字。但印度人口就算还没超过中国,也很快就会超过,而且最终将比中国人口多得多。”易富贤长期批评中国“一胎”政策。该政策始于1980年代初,2015年被正式取消。

 

易富贤2007年曾出版《大国空巢》,严厉批判中国生育控制政策。但是,今年3月,易富贤受中国官方邀请,乘坐商务舱从美国飞到海南,参加博鳌亚洲论坛。该论坛是效仿达沃斯论坛创设。中共政治局常委、副总理张高丽出席今年的论坛。

 

看完FT的报道,我们再看一下英国《卫报》记者Tom Phillips Michael Safi 分别发自北京和印度德里的报道全文。该报道介绍了易富贤的上述观点,然后引用了王丰教授和印度学者的评论,对易富贤的“发现”提出了强烈质疑。

 

标题:India is world's most populous nation with 1.32bn people, academic claims

 

研究者称,拥有13.2亿人口的印度是世界人口最多的国家。

 

摘要:Yi Fuxian says 1.29bn Chinese are outstripped by 1.32bn Indians. But his findings are disputed with one demographer calling them ‘sloppy’

 

易富贤称,他认为中国目前有12.9亿人口,低于印度的13.2亿人。但是,他的研究“发现”遭到一位人口学家质疑,被认为“很草率”。

 

Wednesday 24 May 2017 07.30 BST Last modified on Wednesday 24 May 2017 07.37 BST

 

Claims that India may already have overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation have sparked consternation among demographers.

 

关于印度已超越中国成为世界人口最多国家的说法,正在人口学家中引发争论。

 

The claims were made on Monday by Yi Fuxian, a University of Wisconsin-Madison academic who has spent years campaigning against Beijing ’s draconian family-planning laws, and picked up by newspapers in both China and India.

 

星期一,美国威斯康星州立大学麦迪逊分校研究者易富贤如此宣称。他多年来持续反对中国的生育控制法规。他的说法被中国和印度的报纸同时报道。

 

Speaking at a conference in Beijing, Yi said he was convinced that over the last 26 years Chinese statisticians had overestimated the country’s population by about 90 million, partly by inflating rates of fertility. As a result, China’s population at the end of last year would have been 1.29 billion.

 

易富贤说,在北京的一个研讨会上,他确认,过去26年来,中国统计学家把中国的人口高估了9000万左右。这部分是因为官方调高了生育率。作为一个结果,截至2016年底,中国的人口可能只有12.9亿。

 

The academic repeated his claims on Wednesday in an interview with the Guardian. “I think the real number is 1.29 billion but the government thinks it is 1.38 billion,” Yi said. “India is maybe 1.32 billion right now.”

 

周三,在接受《卫报》采访时,这位研究者重复了他的推论。“我想,(中国)真实的人口数字是12.9亿人口,但(中国)政府认为该数字是13.8亿”,易富贤称,“印度当前可能有13.2亿人口。”

 

Yi argued that his findings showed that Beijing – which ditched its notorious one-child policy for a two-child policy in 2015 – should immediately scrap all such controls in order to soften the blow of a looming ageing crisis.

 

他争论称,他的发现显示,北京应立即放松所有的(生育)控制,以减缓日渐逼近的老龄化的冲击。2015年,中国已放弃臭名昭著的一胎政策,代之以二孩政策。

 

He said he hoped his controversial findings would prompt a debate over China’s demographic time bomb which he called the country’s “number one problem”.

 

他表示,希望他这些有争议的“发现”将掀起一场辩论。他称之为中国人口学的“定时炸弹”。他认为,这是中国的“头号问题”。

 

Instead, however, they have stirred up a storm with Chinese and Indian scholars expressing bewilderment and scepticism at his claims.

 

但是,针对他的说法,中国和印度的学者表达了困惑和怀疑,还引发了一场风暴。

 

Wang Feng, a leading demographer from the University of California, Irvine, dismissed Yi’s claims as sensational, extremely sloppy and based on highly politicised back-of-the-envelope calculations.

 

王丰,来自加州大学尔湾分校的知名人口学家,毫不理会易富贤的说法。他认为,易富贤的说法是耸人听闻的,且极为草率,是基于高度政治化的粗糙推论。

 

“He’s a person with a political agenda and [who has been] a consistent critic of the Chinese government’s policy ... [so] his numbers should not be taken at face value.”

 

“他是个附带政治议题的人,长期持续地批评中国政府的政策,……(因此)他的数据并不值得正面回应。”

 

“I don’t disagree with his general criticisms [of China’s birth control policy],” Wang added. “But ... we have to speak from facts or we just speak from conjecture ... I think he just wants to make a point to say that fertility is very low in China, the government has inflated the birth numbers, and [therefore] China should have no birth control policy.”

 

“我不反对他对中国生育控制政策的一般批评,”王丰补充说,“但是,我们必须基于事实说话,否则,仅仅是基于猜测说话……我认为,他只是想说一点:中国的生育率很低,中国政府调高了出生人口数,(所以)中国不该有生育控制政策。”

 

Asked what he thought China’s true population was, Wang said: “I would go with the government number.”

 

当被问及他怎么看中国真实的人口总量时,王丰说:“我愿站在官方数据一边。”

 

Indian demographers also scotched the suggestion their country had already overtaken China. “China is still the most populated, but India will overtake them by 2025,” said Laushram Ladu Singh, a population researcher at Mumbai’s International Institute for Population Sciences.

 

印度人口学家也反击印度人口已超过中国的说法。孟买国际人口科学研究所人口专家Laushram Ladu Singh说:“中国(目前)依然是人口最多的国家,但到2025年,印度(人口)将超过中国。”

 

India’s population, currently around 1.3 billion, has quadrupled since the country became independent in 1947 but the speed of growth – still very high at around 17.7% in the decade to 2011 – is slowing significantly. The World Health Organisation projects India’s population will reach 1.7bn by 2050 and begin to decline.

 

目前,印度人口约为13亿,是1947年印度独立时的四倍。目前,印度人口的增长速度仍很高(2011年前的十年,该增速仍高达17.7%),但正在显著放缓。世界卫生组织预测,到2050年,印度的人口将达到17亿,然后开始下降。

 

In southern states such as and, where quality of life is higher, population growth has already stabilised. The large increases are being driven by eight mostly northern states, including Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, that are “lagging in the development and social sectors”, said Singh.

 

Singh说,印度南部各邦如Tamil NaduKerala,因生活质量较高,人口增长已经稳定。(印度)人口的巨大增长主要受北方八个邦的推动,包括Uttar PradeshJharkhand邦在内。(这些北部)邦的“发展和社会部门落在后面”。

 

 “In many states fertility has come down to the replacement level, by which we mean one woman replacing one daughter on average,” Singh said. “But in these eight big states, which make up 40% of the population, fertility is still high, though coming down.”

 

Singh说:“在印度许多邦,生育率已降到世代更替水平。这意味着,一个成年女性平均被一个女儿替代。但是,上述八个大邦占印度人口的40%,尽管生育率正在降低,但仍然很高。”

 

Wang said Chinese statisticians might have overstated the size of China’s population but would not have been so “simple and foolish” to do so by 90 million people. “That is two Spains. It’s not possible to be off by that much. That’s like one of China’s largest provinces not being there.”

 

王丰说,中国的统计学家可能夸大中国人口的规模,但绝不能说,中国人口被高估了9000万。这说法是如此“简单和愚蠢”。“9000万是两个西班牙的人口。这是不可能的。这就好像说,中国人口最多的一个省份变没了。”

 

If current trends continued, Wang said it was likely, possibly over the next five years, that China’s population would peak at about 1.4 billion and then start to fall. India’s population, depending on its growth rate, might overtake China’s within the next decade. “It could be a few years earlier, it could be a few years later ... But the bottom line is China has not yet been passed by India.”

 

如果当前的趋势继续,王丰指出,未来五年内,中国人口将达到14亿左右,然后开始下降。而印度的人口,根据其增长率,可能在未来十年内超过中国。“可能是早几年,也可能晚几年……但是,底线是中国(人口)总量并没被印度超过。”

 

Wang said he expected some Chinese nationalists to lament the day China was passed by India. But ultimately it was irrelevant if one country had slightly more people than the other. “Whether it is number two or number one or number three, it doesn’t matter ... Any serious politician or serious person would not think this matters.

 

“It doesn’t change anyone’s life except people who like China to be number one. I don’t care. Most people should not care.”

 

王丰说,当中国人口被印度超过那天,中国一些民族主义者预计会因此痛惜。但是,如果一个国家的人口比另一个国家略多一些,这是无关紧要的。“无论是第二,还是第一抑或第三,这都不重要……任何严肃的政治家或人们都不会认为这很重要。”

 

“除了那些喜欢中国当老大的人,这并不会改变任何人的生活。我不在乎,大多数人也不会在乎。”

 

看了上述《卫报》的报道,想必大家会明白,所谓印度超越中国成为人口第一大国只是个笑话,千万别当真。关于中国人口和生育率,真实的情况是,以原人口计生委为代表的政府部门长期高估中国的生育率,并且做出了错误的决策,加剧了老龄化,而且付出了严重的政治和社会代价。

 

十多年前,中国人民大学人口学教授顾宝昌、北京大学社会学系教授郭志刚和加州大学尔湾分校社会学系教授王丰等组织的研究团队就向中共高层提交建议,要求取消生育控制,尽快放开生育,甚至鼓励生育。

 

但是,由于各种原因,中国直到2013年秋季,才决定放开“单独”家庭(夫妻一方是独生子女的家庭)生二胎。后因效果甚微,2015年中国终于放开二胎。但专家预计,鉴于中国老龄化严重,“未富先老”,中国未来可能将不得不鼓励生育。

 

人口首先是个统计学问题。计生部门此前有高估,也有数据造假,但不能因为官方造假,于是一些研究者也偏离事实,故意耸人听闻,夸大问题的严重程度。人口学家认为,中国2010年的人口普查数据质量较此前有所提高,而非相反。事实上,易富贤此前也是认同2010年的人口普查数据的。但是,他现在忽然说,中国人口被严重高估,高估了9000万人。这真不知是从何说起。

 

无论如何,真正的学术研究必须基于事实,不能情绪化,也不能被政治干扰。这是基本的道理。在中国,这并不容易。唯其不易,才更应该严肃待之。

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